Comments Posted By Joe Katzman
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HAPPY NEW YEAR PRESIDENT AHMADINEJAD
An oil boycott is not in the cards under any circumstances. Least of all from the Saudis.
First, because the MidEast regimes who would supposedly be participating need the money. Many are indebted (quite a feat, that), and/or have social welfare schemes that help to keep their powderkegs stable, and the flow of booze, women, and gold-plated bathtubs coming. Cut your dollar intake, and bad things start to happen. This isn't 1973. Venezuela is, I might add, in an even more precarious position. Which is why El Caudillo Chavez is America's #5 oil source, and will continue to be.
Second, because there is no way to cut the USA off. The only option that's feasible is to ratchet back production as a whole, and in that event you'd hit not just the USA but also Europe (bet that would make for a watchable new set of riots), China (uh-oh), India... many more players than there used to be. Not wise to piss them all off at once.
I'll add that the Saudis in particular would quietly (and maybe even not so quietly) cheer an attack on Iran. They still talk about "The Arabian Gulf" there, you know...
Comment Posted By Joe Katzman On 5.01.2006 @ 02:21
